From MarketWatch, submitted by David Boehmig, President/Founder
Analysis Also Identifies Seven Population Growth Indicators That Strongly Correlate to Fast-Growing Markets, Providing Expansion Opportunities for Retail Industry
NEW YORK, NY, Nov 03, 2008 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX) — A new Nielsen Company analysis aimed at uncovering expansion opportunities for the retail industry in a down economy has found that sustained growth is occurring in large metros such as Atlanta, GA; Dallas, TX; and Phoenix, AZ, which ranked as the top three fastest growing markets over the last eight years.
The study, which was conducted by Nielsen Claritas, Nielsen’s leading marketing information source, and based on data compiled as of early 2008, showed that Atlanta and Dallas CBSAs (Core Based Statistical Areas) added more than one million in population since 2000, while the Phoenix CBSA was close at 971,849.
America's Top 10 Markets by Volume Growth: 2000-2008
Population
CBSA Name 2008 % Growth Growth
Population 2000-2008 2000-2008
1 Atlanta-Sandy Springs, GA 5,357,017 26.1% 1,109,036
2 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 6,164,066 19.4% 1,002,522
3 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 4,223,725 29.9% 971,849
4 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 5,665,312 20.1% 949,905
5 Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA 13,304,944 7.6% 939,317
6 Riverside, CA 4,170,780 28.1% 915,959
7 Washington, DC-VA-MD-WV 5,384,723 12.3% 588,540
8 New York, NY-NJ-PA 18,871,770 3.0% 548,768
9 Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL 5,526,947 10.4% 519,383
10 Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 1,875,245 36.3% 499,480
Nielsen Claritas Pop-Facts(R)
Rounding out the top five were the Houston and the Los Angeles CBSAs, which also grew by nearly a million people at 949,905 and 939,317, respectively. A CBSA includes both metropolitan areas of at least 50,000 population and micropolitan areas with a population between 10,000-49,999.
“And while some of these markets like Phoenix and Los Angeles have been hard hit by the recent wave of foreclosures, there has been no mass exodus from these markets or anywhere else. People who have foreclosed most likely have not left the market but rather have just become renters. Faltering markets, such as these, will likely rebound and continue to grow — and their underlying demographics are solid,” said Mike Mancini, Nielsen Claritas Vice President of Data Product Management and co-author of a whitepaper that documented the study’s findings, titled “Finding Growth in Challenging Times: Seven Indicators to Evaluate Population Growth.”
These Population Growth Indicators, which strongly correlate to fast-growing markets, are: 1. large land areas, 2. booming suburban rings, 3. widespread affluence, 4. an increasing Hispanic population, 5. diversified employment, 6. long commutes, and 7. the presence of lifestyle shopping centers.
“The indicators give retailers a robust tool to identify locations with significant potential for market expansion — markets that may even lead the way in an economic recovery in the coming years,” said Terry Munoz, Vice President of the Nielsen Claritas Retail, Restaurant and Real Estate Group and the other co-author of the whitepaper.
In looking at each indicator, the study further classified CBSAs into three primary groups: Metro Cities, with populations over 200,000; Metro Towns, with populations between 50,000 and 200,000; and Micro Towns whose populations are under 50,000.
For example, a ranking of the markets with populations under 100,000 people revealed that the top three — Palm Coast, FL, Fernley, NV, and St. George, UT — all grew by more than 50 percent since 2000.
Located beyond congested metros, these markets have attracted jobs, retailers and residents thanks to low crime rates and fewer traffic jams. Some of the smaller markets, like St. George, are close to national parks and wilderness areas that appeal to young families and retirees, according to the whitepaper.
“With this analysis, retailers can quickly assess a market’s potential and determine where it fits into an overall growth strategy,” Munoz said. “Even in a down economy with slow population growth, this innovative modeling approach can suggest expansion opportunities in overlooked markets.”
For more information on how to obtain a copy of the whitepaper please visit www.claritas.com.
About The Nielsen Company
The Nielsen Company is a global information and media company with leading market positions in marketing and consumer information, television and other media measurement, online intelligence, mobile measurement, trade shows and business publications (Billboard, The Hollywood Reporter, Adweek). The privately held company is active in more than 100 countries, with headquarters in New York, USA. For more information, please visit, www.nielsen.com.
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